sedigheh khorshid; caro locas
Volume 13, Issue 49 , August 2006, , Pages 107-130
Abstract
The evaluation of project is a important stage in the process of decision - making of research and expertise panels of the large organizations and research centers. It is mixed with uncertainty which arise from incomplete and no obtainable information and knowledge about actions and their consequences. ...
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The evaluation of project is a important stage in the process of decision - making of research and expertise panels of the large organizations and research centers. It is mixed with uncertainty which arise from incomplete and no obtainable information and knowledge about actions and their consequences. Risk is a traditional approach for expressing uncertainty in the different systems or reviewing and evaluating R & D projects. In the past, the risk is modeled by probability theory. Since, professor Zadeh hase innovated the opinion of fuzzy sets theory, different researchers used its for capturing uncertainties and modeling theirs in the process of evaluation and computation the rate of aggregative risk in software development. In this paper, we design a methodology for evaluating and computing the rate of aggregative risk of R & D projects based on fuzzy sets theory. The proposed methodology has several advantages:
1- It provide a more realistic evaluation from research projects by using linguistic approach.
2- It provide the requirement flexibility for selecting of research projects with inserting the concepts of fuzzy majority of dominance and fuzzy majority of experts by using OWA operator.
3- It define different optimum degrees for considering different approaches of decision - making better, more flexible and satisfactory decisions under conditions of uncertainty and reached consensus on the selected choices. This methodology is implemented at Iran telecommunication Research center. to all levels allows every one to understand how to contribute to the strategy. In our view the notion that strategy is something that can be planned well in advance by managers and then executed by other people is not consistent with today's dynamic and rapidly changing environment. So we introduced a discipline with two main features: developing personnel knowledge incrementally toward new paradigms; and use an iterative framework to implement strategy; just one stage after planning, through a learning cycle. Here the main focus is creating collaboration, synergy and commitment to implement strategy, in all personnel. Our experience about implementing this discipline in SAIRAN in late 2004 is presented. We assess it as a dynamic and evolutionary process that succeed to involve near 200 people directly and 3500 people indirectly and align their capabilities and capacities to draw vision and contribute to strategic planning, whom will be the core members of execution in next step.
